But even the study’s authors have questions about the assumptions behind the projections. And the Texas Physical Therapy Association says not to worry until it looks closely at the situation.

The APTA study projects that there will be enough PTs nationwide to meet demand by the end of 1998. "From a positive perspective, those who need physical therapy will be able to get it," said APTA President Jan Richardson, PhD, PT. But the new century will bring greater competition for physical therapy jobs, she said.

PT educators, APTA officials, and the authors of the study remain cautious about the study’s assumptions, however. Vector Research Inc., an Ann Arbor, Mich., private healthcare studies and analysis consulting firm that conducted the study, notes that it chose its assumptions based on data, interviews, and analyses. But if the assumptions were to change, the conclusions would change too.

A major assumption is that the California model of managed care—characterized by aggressive cost cutting and downsizing—will spread throughout the country. "We’re wondering if the pendulum isn’t starting to swing back the other way," Richardson said.

The study’s relevance to Texas is questionable, said Kurt Mossberg, PhD, PT, chair of the physical therapy department at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston. "No one in Texas that I’m aware of provided any information to the Vector group," he said.

In any case, Texas doesn’t conform to the national average. It is not projected to reach a balanced supply and demand of physical therapists until 2005, said Barbara Sanders, PhD, PT, president of the Texas Physical Therapy Association (TPTA) and chair of the physical therapy department at Southwest Texas State University in San Marcos. The 5,000-member TPTA includes about half the physical therapists practicing in Texas, she said.

The TPTA has created a task force to interpret the national study’s findings locally. Sanders noted that Texas is not as saturated with physical therapists as some other parts of the country. "We don’t think we’ll ever have that saturation in Texas because we have such a large rural area that traditionally has been underserved."